Hutton: Don’t expect fireworks in ND-FSU clash

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Notre Dame quarterback Tommy Rees (11) pitches the ball to running back Cierre Wood in the second quarter of an NCAA college football game in West Lafayette, Ind., Saturday, Oct. 1, 2011. (AP Photo/AJ Mast)

Updated: January 29, 2012 8:14AM

ORLANDO, Fla. — Deconstructing Notre Dame’s chances against Florida State in the Champs Sports Bowl.

The QB conundrum

It just has such an odd feel going into it and it’s clearly the reason coaches don’t generally employ a two-quarterback system — at least not the in the manner that the Irish have been doing it. Let’s consider the possibilities — two of which aren’t very good for Brian Kelly or for the team.

Tommy Rees, who is going to start, (and who, by the way, has started off poorly against Stanford and USC in the two biggest games of the year) leads Notre Dame to a touchdown on its first drive and its second. Why pull him? Because Kelly has stated unequivocally that both Rees and Andrew Hendrix will play. In fact, the more you hear Kelly talk about the quarterbacks, the more it appears that he favors Hendrix (for obvious reasons) over Rees.

The team sputters on the first drive directed by Rees, not a far-fetched scenario given how good FSU is defensively (ranked sixth overall in total defense). This isn’t particularly good because Hendrix, who will theoretically have a much tougher time of it than he did against Stanford, is coming into the game in a stressful situation. That’s not an ideal position for essentially an inexperienced backup to be in.

They both alternate series at quarterback and it works out swimmingly, with the offense piling up mega yards and mega points. This is a highly doubtful outcome.

My hunch is that Rees plays early, maybe a series or two, and that Hendrix then pretty much finishes the game out, for better or worse. He stays in as long as he doesn’t make too many mistakes and maybe even if he does make lots of mistakes. It’s still about next year for Notre Dame.

The running game

Want to know a big reason Rees is 12-4 as a starter? Because the Irish had an excellent running game. It’s unclear how good the running game is without Jonas Gray in the backfield. The ground attack saved two victories for ND this year — against Wake Forest and Boston College. Rees generally managed the game and handed the ball off to Gray and Cierre Wood. ND is averaging 166 yards rushing per game. Gray’s knee injury, suffered against Boston College, was an untimely blow. He was dynamite as the power back for the Irish. He took pressure off Rees and Wood, who isn’t as physical as Gray. Without Gray, Notre Dame would seem to be better off with a quarterback who can make plays running the ball. That’s why Hendrix is the better fit on paper. FSU is the kind of a team that won’t be pushed around defensively. It’s hard to see how ND will be able to churn out yards on the ground against FSU, though Wood said the Irish have a plan to get the FSU defenders to over commit and make yards.

The defense

No, not FSU’s defense, but the Notre Dame defense. The Irish have more than a fighting chance against the Seminoles because FSU isn’t very good offensively, and the strength of this ND team is its defense.

The Seminoles have allowed 36 sacks this season and they are averaging just 375 yards of total offense per game. Their point total was padded in their first two games when they beat Charleston Southern 62-0 and Louisiana Southern 34-0. In a 21-7 victory against Florida in their last game, FSU finished with just 95 totals yards of offense. One of the Seminoles’ touchdowns came on an interception return.

Notre Dame gets Manti Te’o back at full strength (he has played with a bad ankle much of the season) and defensive end Stephon Tuitt returns after a two-game absence because of an illness. The Irish defense is as full strength as it will get. FSU is going to struggle to put points up.

The prediction

It’s a toss-up and the game itself won’t be memorable, with lots of stops and starts and slogging around on offense by both teams. Florida State wins 14-10.